🛢️ Big Oil’s Back + Retailers Say ‘No Thanks’ to Discounts

Hey nut fam 🌰 — looks like oil’s having its “told ya so” moment ⛽, retailers are ditching discounts like bad habits 💳, and Musk just expanded his satellite empire 🌍. Let’s crack open today’s stories.

🏭 Business Nuts

🔥 Big Oil Is Betting the World Can’t Quit Fossil Fuels — and Wall Street’s Buying In

The clean energy dream just hit a reality check — and oil executives are grinning ear to ear.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global oil and gas demand isn’t slowing down anytime soon — in fact, it could keep rising through 2050 unless governments pull off major policy shifts.

📈 Here’s what’s going on:

• Under the IEA’s “Current Policies” outlook, oil use climbs from 100M barrels/day in 2024 to 113M by 2050, thanks to demand from aviation, trucking, and petrochemicals.

• Natural gas demand is set to grow well into the 2030s, while electricity use could jump 40% by 2035, especially across solar-rich regions.

• ExxonMobil ($XOM), Chevron ($CVX), and ConocoPhillips ($COP) are all doubling down on fossil fuels, betting that renewables won’t scale fast enough.

🧊 Meanwhile in America:
While tech bros chase the next AI unicorn, the oil patch is quietly printing money.

• Natural gas prices have soared 70% YoY, including a 50% spike in just three months, driven by cold weather, booming LNG exports, and fresh worries over Russian supply cuts.

• Expand Energy ($EXE), formed by the Chesapeake–Southwestern merger, saw Q3 sales surge 358% YoY, becoming the largest U.S. natural gas producer.

• Oneok ($OKE), EQT Corp ($EQT), Diamondback ($FANG), and Coterra ($CTRA) are all surfing the same wave as AI data centers guzzle power like never before.

💬 The Politics of Power:
The Trump administration is prepping new offshore drilling plans across California, Alaska, and the Gulf of Mexico — all under the banner of “energy independence.”
But the IEA warns: the 1.5°C climate goal is now “all but certain” to be overshot within a decade.

💡 The Big Picture: Oil’s not dead — it’s thriving. The energy transition might be real, but the timeline? Still written in crude.

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🎁 Retail Nuts

🛍️ Full Price, Please: Retailers Ditch Black Friday Discounts

The sale signs are up, but the smartest brands are saying “nah.”

This holiday season, a new retail trend is emerging: pricing power over promotions. Companies like On ($ONON) are refusing to play the discount game — and still crushing it.

👟 Here’s the play:

• On raised its full-year sales guidance for the third straight quarter and confirmed it will stay full-price all season, no Black Friday gimmicks.

• Other premium brands — like Canada Goose and Aritzia — are following suit, proving you can sell luxury without slashing prices.

• Even with Adobe predicting online discounts to average ~28% (down from 35%), online spending is still set to grow 5.3% YoY.

👎 The Discount Hangover:
Nike ($NKE) learned this the hard way — last year’s markdown spree boosted short-term sales but hammered brand perception and profit margins.
Under Armour ($UA) faced a similar fate, watching profits shrink after over-discounting to clear excess inventory.

💡 Why It Matters: With tariffs creeping up, consumer budgets tightening, and inflation sticking around, retailers are realizing brand loyalty beats clearance racks.

🛒 The Bottom Line: Forget “everything must go.” This year, it’s “everything must stay expensive.”

📰 Other News — Quick Bites

• 📺 YouTube TV & Disney are patching things up: After a tense standoff, ESPN and ABC might soon be back on YouTube TV. Cue the collective sigh of relief from sports fans everywhere.

• 🌍 Musk lands a Starlink deal in Africa: Vodacom Group (Africa’s largest carrier) and Starlink will bring low-cost satellite internet to remote areas, finally connecting millions.

• 🏠 50-year mortgages are coming (gulp): The administration floated the idea to lower monthly payments — but it nearly doubles total interest and slows homeownership gains.

• 🥕 Whole Foods fights food waste: Partnering with Too Good To Go, Amazon’s grocery chain is now selling “Surprise Bags” of near-expiry items at one-third the price.

• 🎢 Netflix IRL: The streamer ($NFLX) opened its first “Netflix House”, featuring VR, mini-golf, and selfie zones. Expect Squid Game photo ops galore.

• 💾 AMD sees 60% data center boom: Fueled by AI demand and new deals with OpenAI and Oracle ($ORCL), AMD stock jumped 9% after forecasting multi-year growth.

🌰 That’s a Wrap

From Big Oil’s comeback to retail’s “no sale” strategy, it’s clear the market’s motto this week is: patience pays (and sometimes so does pollution).

Thanks for cracking open today’s Cash Nut 🌰 — where we keep the markets fun, fast, and flavorful.

See you tomorrow,
Team Cash Nut 💰

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